Trump Tariffs on India: Why the US is Targeting Delhi Over Russia
India is suddenly at the center of a US-India trade war. Former US President Donald Trump announced a sharp increase in tariffs on Indian exports, linking it to India’s purchase of Russian oil. The decision could reshape trade relations, affect India’s economy, and test Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy strategy.
What Are Trump’s Tariffs on India?
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Trump doubled US tariffs on India from 25% to 50%.
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The new tariffs take effect on 27 August 2025.
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Washington says the goal is to punish India for importing Russian oil and cut Moscow’s war revenue.
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India rejected the move as “unfair and unjustified.”
💡 Keyword: Trump tariffs on India
Why Does This Matter for India?
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The US is India’s largest export market:
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Accounts for 18% of Indian exports.
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Contributes 2.2% of India’s GDP.
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India exported $86.5 billion worth of goods to the US last year.
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With 50% tariffs, most Indian products may become unprofitable in the US.
💡 Keyword: US-India trade war
Which Indian Sectors Will Suffer Most?
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Hit the hardest:
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Textiles
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Gems and jewelry
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Other labor-intensive industries
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Safer for now:
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Electronics
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Pharmaceuticals (tariffs do not apply yet)
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💬 Nomura Research compared the new tariffs to a “trade embargo.”
The Economic Impact of the US-India Trade War
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Indian exporters say they cannot handle more than a 10–15% rise in costs.
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A 50% tariff is impossible to absorb.
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India’s GDP could drop by 0.2–0.4%, pushing growth below 6%.
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Textile exporters warn of a “huge setback” in US competitiveness.
💡 Keywords: India exports to US, impact of Trump tariffs on India
Why Did Trump Target India Over Russia?
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India is not the only buyer of Russian oil—China and Turkey are too.
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But the US chose to pressure India, a country often seen as a key partner.
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Experts call this move a “high-stakes gamble.”
💬 Former RBI Governor Urjit Patel: “India’s worst fears have come true. Without a deal, a needless trade war will follow.”
💡 Keyword: India Russia oil trade
What Options Does India Have?
India’s government faces tough choices:
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Reduce Russian oil imports to ease pressure from Washington.
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Stand firm and risk long-term tariffs.
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Offer small concessions in agriculture and dairy, sectors the US wants access to.
💬 Dr. Chietigj Bajpaee (Chatham House): “India may adjust slightly, but Russia will stay a key partner.”
Could India Hit Back?
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India has a history of retaliating:
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In 2019, Delhi imposed tariffs on 28 US goods (like apples and almonds) after US tariffs on steel.
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Some were later lifted in 2023 after WTO settlements.
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Experts say retaliation is unlikely but not impossible this time.
💡 Keyword: India US trade dispute
Strategic Consequences
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Short Term:
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August trade talks will decide if India can strike a deal.
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Medium Term:
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Tariffs may slow India’s role as a China-plus-one investment hub, though firms like Apple remain safe.
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Long Term:
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India may strengthen ties with Russia and China if US pressure continues.
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A revival of India-Russia-China trilateral talks could happen.
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Political Reactions in India
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The Indian government said it will take “all necessary steps to protect national interests.”
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Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi called the tariffs “economic blackmail.”
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For Prime Minister Modi, this could become his biggest foreign policy test.
Final Thoughts
The Trump tariffs on India could trigger one of the most serious US-India trade disputes in recent years. With the clock ticking until 27 August, the coming weeks will show whether India chooses compromise or confrontation.
👉 Will Modi’s government back down on Russian oil or stand firm against US pressure?
References
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BBC News
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Nomura Research
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Chatham House
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Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
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Barclays Research
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